New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-01-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 58.9%

NJD: 41.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.78

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.27
1	NJD	11	0	0.24
2	TBL	23	1	1.43
2	NJD	4	0	0.30
3	TBL	24	4	3.93
3	NJD	21	2	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1