Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-01-27 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 61.6%

TOR: 38.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.23

TOR: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	0	0.46
1	TOR	9	0	0.55
2	WPG	17	1	0.93
2	TOR	17	0	0.80
3	WPG	16	1	1.70
3	TOR	13	2	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6