New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-02-05 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 61.3%
NYI: 38.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.51
NYI: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 19-13-2 | 0.915 SV% | 2.48 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-21 | TOR 3 - 6 NYI | NYI | TOR |
| 2024-02-05 | TOR 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:31 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:50 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:50 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 15:12 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:58 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.5 - 2.6