Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-02-06 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 54.9%
DAL: 45.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.90
DAL: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-7-3 | 0.914 SV% | 2.66 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | BUF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.941 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | DAL 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | DAL |
| 2024-12-31 | DAL 4 - 2 BUF | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-10-22 | BUF 4 - 2 DAL | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-04-09 | DAL 3 - 2 BUF | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-06 | BUF 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:58 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:04 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.9 - 3.3