Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2024-02-10 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 2 - 5 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 56.1%
CGY: 43.9%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.19
CGY: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | NYI | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs CGY: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | CGY 4 - 2 NYI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-22 | NYI 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | NYI |
| 2024-11-19 | CGY 2 - 1 NYI | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-02-10 | NYI 2 - 5 CGY | CGY | NYI |
| 2023-11-18 | CGY 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:47 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 08:38 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 15:16 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 04:00 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 15:59 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 17:28 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 19:38 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 2 - 5 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.2 - 3.3