Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-02-11 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Vancouver Canucks
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 57.4%
VAN: 42.6%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.56
VAN: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 19-16-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.45 GAA
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | WSH | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.885 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.894 | 0.793 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 3.41 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs VAN: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | VAN 4 - 3 WSH | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-10-19 | WSH 3 - 4 VAN | VAN | WSH |
| 2025-01-25 | VAN 2 - 1 WSH | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-01-08 | WSH 2 - 1 VAN | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-03-16 | VAN 1 - 2 WSH | WSH | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 11:09 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 07:37 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 08:48 | WSH | Goal |
| 4 | 04:55 | VAN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 2.6 - 2.9