Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-02-15 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.4%
COL: 40.6%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.54
COL: 3.18
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 27-7-3 | 0.919 SV% | 2.11 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 20-4-5 | 0.912 SV% | 2.30 GAA
| Stat | TBL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.932 | 0.881 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.924 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | TBL 4 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-04 | COL 3 - 2 TBL | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-25 | TBL 8 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-30 | COL 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-02-15 | TBL 6 - 3 COL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:08 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:18 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:03 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:40 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:34 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.5 - 3.2