Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2024-02-17 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 56.6%
BUF: 43.4%
Expected Goals
MIN: 2.81
BUF: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | MIN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.895 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | — |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MIN at home vs BUF: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | BUF 4 - 5 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2025-11-29 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
| 2025-03-22 | MIN 4 - 1 BUF | MIN | MIN |
| 2024-11-27 | BUF 0 - 1 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2024-02-17 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 00:39 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 04:02 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 11:21 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 19:23 | MIN | Goal |
| 4 | 01:29 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 2.8 - 3.1