Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions
2024-02-19 • Enterprise Center
St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
STL: 52.4%
TOR: 47.6%
Expected Goals
STL: 2.29
TOR: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 50%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | STL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.869 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.826 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 3.56 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs TOR: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | TOR 3 - 2 STL | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-02 | STL 4 - 2 TOR | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-24 | TOR 1 - 5 STL | STL | TOR |
| 2024-02-19 | STL 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | STL |
| 2024-02-13 | TOR 4 - 1 STL | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 00:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 17:14 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:22 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.3 - 3.2