Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-02-22 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 63.6%
WSH: 36.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.95
WSH: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 27-7-3 | 0.919 SV% | 2.11 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 19-16-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.932 | 0.894 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:30 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 16:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 09:16 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 12:14 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 02:42 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 03:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:01 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:58 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.9 - 2.6