Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-02-22 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 51.6%
TOR: 48.4%
Expected Goals
VGK: 2.65
TOR: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | VGK | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.818 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
| 2026-01-15 | VGK 6 - 5 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-05 | VGK 5 - 2 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3 - 0 VGK | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-02-27 | TOR 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 11:10 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 14:20 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 16:11 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 00:51 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:44 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:36 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 00:59 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:25 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:35 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.6 - 3.4