Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-02-24 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 56.9%
TOR: 43.1%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.03
TOR: 3.07
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 20-4-5 | 0.912 SV% | 2.30 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | COL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.881 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs TOR: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | TOR 1 - 4 COL | COL | TOR |
| 2026-01-12 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | COL |
| 2025-03-19 | TOR 2 - 1 COL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-08 | COL 7 - 4 TOR | COL | COL |
| 2024-02-24 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:16 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:07 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:42 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:45 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:48 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:41 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:09 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1