Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2024-02-24 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 59.7%
CGY: 40.3%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.30
CGY: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.893 SV% | 3.07 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | EDM | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.831 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CGY 4 - 3 EDM | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-27 | CGY 3 - 2 EDM | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5 - 1 CGY | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-03-29 | EDM 3 - 2 CGY | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:02 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 09:11 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 15:53 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 18:29 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 04:34 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 11:47 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 14:09 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 12:51 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 16:16 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9