Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2024-02-25 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 58.0%
TBL: 42.0%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.02
TBL: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 27-7-3 | 0.919 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.899 | 0.932 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.792 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | NJD |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:15 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:25 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0