New York Islanders at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-02-26 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 59.4%
NYI: 40.6%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.45
NYI: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | DAL | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • DAL at home vs NYI: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | DAL 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | DAL |
| 2025-02-23 | NYI 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | NYI |
| 2024-10-12 | DAL 3 - 0 NYI | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-26 | DAL 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | DAL |
| 2024-01-21 | NYI 3 - 2 DAL | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:59 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:11 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:24 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 18:17 | DAL | Goal |
| 4 | 02:54 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0