Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-02-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 50.1%

TBL: 49.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.17

TBL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.34
1	TBL	13	0	0.52
2	PHI	8	0	0.15
2	TBL	12	0	0.62
3	PHI	21	4	2.12
3	TBL	10	2	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3