Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-03-02 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 65.3%
MTL: 34.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.37
MTL: 2.35
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-8-3 | 0.916 SV% | 2.22 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 19-5-4 | 0.893 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.786 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs MTL: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | TBL 5 - 4 MTL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-09 | MTL 1 - 6 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-02-09 | MTL 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-01-21 | MTL 3 - 2 TBL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-12-29 | TBL 2 - 5 MTL | MTL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:27 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:44 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:23 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:18 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 65.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.4 - 2.3