Arizona Coyotes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-03-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

WSH: 48.2%

ARI: 51.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.25

ARI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs ARI: 0-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-03	WSH 2 - 5 ARI	ARI	ARI
2023-12-04	ARI 6 - 0 WSH	ARI	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.90
1	ARI	16	1	1.14
2	WSH	14	0	1.06
2	ARI	18	0	1.55
3	WSH	17	0	0.77
3	ARI	9	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1