Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-03-03 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 58.5%
WPG: 41.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.37
WPG: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | BUF | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | WPG 4 - 1 BUF | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-12-01 | BUF 5 - 1 WPG | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-23 | WPG 3 - 5 BUF | BUF | WPG |
| 2024-12-05 | BUF 2 - 3 WPG | WPG | BUF |
| 2024-03-03 | BUF 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 19:54 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:20 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 10:38 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 13:55 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:39 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 19:06 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0