St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 64.1%

STL: 35.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.37

STL: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	1	1.62
1	STL	10	0	0.53
2	PHI	12	0	0.96
2	STL	19	0	1.13
3	PHI	18	0	0.90
3	STL	6	0	0.18
4	PHI	6	0	0.51
4	STL	1	0	0.10
5	PHI	4	1	1.08
5	STL	4	2	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6