Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-03-07 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 61.8%
CGY: 38.2%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.14
CGY: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.969 | 0.250 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | TBL 5 - 1 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-27 | TBL 3 - 0 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-12 | CGY 3 - 8 TBL | TBL | CGY |
| 2024-03-07 | TBL 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | TBL |
| 2023-12-16 | CGY 4 - 2 TBL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:40 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 14:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:11 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 08:34 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 09:25 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 12:29 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 06:04 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 12:17 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 14:35 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8