Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-03-09 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.2%
EDM: 40.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.14
EDM: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 17-8-3 | 0.914 SV% | 2.64 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-8-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.26 GAA
| Stat | BUF | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.917 | 0.838 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.935 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | EDM 3 - 4 BUF | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-11-17 | BUF 5 - 1 EDM | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-10 | BUF 3 - 2 EDM | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-25 | EDM 3 - 2 BUF | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-21 | EDM 8 - 3 BUF | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:29 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 14:19 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 15:35 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 11:39 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9