Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-03-09 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 56.3%
TOR: 43.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.97
TOR: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 19-6-4 | 0.889 SV% | 3.03 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-10-4 | 0.902 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.884 | 0.884 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.939 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-18 | MTL 3 - 7 TOR | TOR | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:38 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:39 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:41 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 05:05 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:14 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0