Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-03-09 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 58.9%
PHI: 41.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.18
PHI: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 29-10-3 | 0.914 SV% | 2.28 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 20-10-6 | 0.907 SV% | 2.40 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.924 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:42 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:33 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:16 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 4.2 - 2.9