Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-03-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 53.8%

PHI: 46.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.41

PHI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	2	1.46
1	PHI	11	0	0.67
2	TBL	8	1	0.58
2	PHI	18	0	0.74
3	TBL	12	0	0.96
3	PHI	9	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0