Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-03-12 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 57.7%
FLA: 42.3%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.28
FLA: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | DAL | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.919 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs FLA: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | DAL 0 - 4 FLA | FLA | DAL |
| 2025-11-01 | FLA 4 - 3 DAL | FLA | FLA |
| 2024-11-02 | FLA 4 - 2 DAL | FLA | FLA |
| 2024-11-01 | DAL 4 - 6 FLA | FLA | DAL |
| 2024-03-12 | DAL 3 - 4 FLA | FLA | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:53 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:48 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:11 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:52 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:09 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:00 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:38 | FLA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0