Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-03-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 54.8%
COL: 45.2%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.11
COL: 3.75
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 18-24-3 | 0.896 SV% | 3.02 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 24-4-5 | 0.916 SV% | 2.19 GAA
| Stat | CGY | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.908 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs COL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | COL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | COL |
| 2025-03-14 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2024-03-12 | CGY 2 - 6 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2023-12-11 | COL 6 - 5 CGY | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:05 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:24 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 06:46 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 04:52 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 05:50 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:53 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:10 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:14 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.1 - 3.8