New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-03-14 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 0 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.2%
NYI: 40.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.19
NYI: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 18-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.65 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 24-14-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.51 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.896 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.967 | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • BUF at home vs NYI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-11-01 | BUF 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 04:28 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 08:15 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:41 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 15:06 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 0 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0