Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-03-14 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 54.6%
BOS: 45.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.84
BOS: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 19-6-4 | 0.889 SV% | 3.03 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 23-13-3 | 0.904 SV% | 2.85 GAA
| Stat | MTL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.884 | 0.920 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.866 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs BOS: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | BOS 4 - 3 MTL | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-12-23 | BOS 2 - 6 MTL | MTL | BOS |
| 2025-11-15 | MTL 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | MTL |
| 2025-04-03 | MTL 4 - 1 BOS | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-12-01 | BOS 6 - 3 MTL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:49 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 14:37 | MTL | Goal |
| 4 | 00:25 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Boston Bruins
Expected: 2.8 - 3.3