Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-03-14 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 54.3%
TOR: 45.7%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.25
TOR: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 19-10-6 | 0.908 SV% | 2.39 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-10-4 | 0.902 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.933 | 0.884 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.890 | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2 - 3 PHI | PHI | TOR |
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:01 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 09:57 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 15:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:42 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 09:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.3