New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-03-14 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TBL: 57.3%

NYR: 42.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.05

NYR: 3.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	7	0	0.37
1	NYR	17	0	1.09
2	TBL	11	1	1.14
2	NYR	10	0	0.44
3	TBL	17	2	2.17
3	NYR	15	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 4.0