Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2024-03-16 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 59.0%
OTT: 41.0%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.36
OTT: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | NYI | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.783 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 14% • NYI at home vs OTT: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | OTT 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2025-01-14 | NYI 0 - 2 OTT | OTT | NYI |
| 2024-12-08 | OTT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2024-11-07 | OTT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | OTT |
| 2024-03-16 | NYI 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:27 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 11:46 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 16:22 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 06:35 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 12:14 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:22 | NYI | Goal |
| 4 | 04:36 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0