New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 7 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 55.7%

NYR: 44.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.28

NYR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	0	0.60
1	NYR	15	1	1.36
2	PIT	16	3	2.28
2	NYR	19	1	1.51
3	PIT	24	0	1.57
3	NYR	11	3	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 7 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1