New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-03-16 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 7 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 53.6%
NYR: 46.4%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.34
NYR: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-13-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.77 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 20-12-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.49 GAA
| Stat | PIT | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.908 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 18% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | NYR 3 - 2 PIT | NYR | PIT |
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6 - 5 NYR | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1 - 6 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-10-07 | NYR 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3 - 5 NYR | NYR | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:36 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 03:07 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 03:33 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 12:27 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 15:32 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:10 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 16:27 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 17:32 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:41 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:23 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:42 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 7 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.1