Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-03-16 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 52.6%

TBL: 47.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.36

TBL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	0	0.94
1	TBL	16	2	1.16
2	FLA	22	3	2.17
2	TBL	7	0	0.48
3	FLA	24	1	1.56
3	TBL	4	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1