Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2024-03-16 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 62.2%
WSH: 37.8%
Expected Goals
VAN: 2.30
WSH: 2.79
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-21-5 | 0.877 SV% | 3.65 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 22-19-5 | 0.912 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | VAN | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.875 | 0.902 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs WSH: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | VAN 4 - 3 WSH | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-10-19 | WSH 3 - 4 VAN | VAN | WSH |
| 2025-01-25 | VAN 2 - 1 WSH | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-01-08 | WSH 2 - 1 VAN | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-03-16 | VAN 1 - 2 WSH | WSH | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:11 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 06:01 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 07:54 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.1
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 2.3 - 2.8