Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-03-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 60.6%
WSH: 39.4%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.19
WSH: 3.49
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 19-24-3 | 0.897 SV% | 3.00 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 22-19-5 | 0.912 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | CGY | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.871 | 0.902 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.923 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | WSH 7 - 3 CGY | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-01-23 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WSH |
| 2025-01-28 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2024-03-18 | CGY 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:59 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 05:58 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 09:16 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 10:41 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 14:22 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 07:13 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 17:31 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.2 - 3.5