Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-03-19 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 59.8%
TOR: 40.2%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.17
TOR: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 21-11-7 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 14-11-5 | 0.905 SV% | 3.08 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.883 | 0.885 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.890 | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2 - 3 PHI | PHI | TOR |
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:19 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:56 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 16:26 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 01:11 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:16 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 13:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:50 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0