St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-03-21 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 60.7%
STL: 39.3%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.40
STL: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 21-10-7 | 0.886 SV% | 2.79 GAA
STL
Joel Hofer - 17-11-5 | 0.908 SV% | 2.65 GAA
| Stat | OTT | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.949 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.976 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.87 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs STL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | OTT 1 - 2 STL | STL | OTT |
| 2025-11-28 | STL 4 - 3 OTT | STL | STL |
| 2025-01-03 | STL 4 - 0 OTT | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-29 | OTT 8 - 1 STL | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-03-21 | OTT 2 - 5 STL | STL | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:54 | STL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:57 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:34 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:11 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:58 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:43 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:32 | STL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7