St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-03-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 71.4%

STL: 28.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.43

STL: 2.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	1	1.65
1	STL	7	2	0.74
2	OTT	16	0	1.30
2	STL	9	1	0.61
3	OTT	20	3	1.79
3	STL	15	3	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 2.0