Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2024-03-21 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 51.8%
TBL: 48.2%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.41
TBL: 3.35
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 19-17-3 | 0.886 SV% | 3.56 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 31-12-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.30 GAA
| Stat | SJS | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.871 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.793 | 0.911 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-03 | SJS 3 - 7 TBL | TBL | SJS |
| 2025-01-02 | SJS 2 - 1 TBL | SJS | SJS |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | SJS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:21 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 00:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:02 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.4 - 3.3