Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions
2024-03-24 • Honda Center
Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ANA: 53.2%
TBL: 46.8%
Expected Goals
ANA: 3.07
TBL: 3.58
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 22-13-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.98 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | ANA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | 0.893 |
| GAA | 3.15 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | ANA 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | ANA |
| 2025-10-25 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-16 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-05 | ANA 4 - 1 TBL | ANA | ANA |
| 2024-03-24 | ANA 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | ANA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:49 | ANA | Goal |
| 2 | 07:50 | ANA | Goal |
| 2 | 17:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:36 | ANA | Goal |
| 4 | 00:59 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.6