Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-03-24 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 57.6%
BUF: 42.4%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.22
BUF: 3.55
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | CGY | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.862 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | CGY 7 - 4 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-19 | BUF 2 - 6 CGY | CGY | BUF |
| 2025-01-23 | CGY 5 - 2 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-09 | BUF 3 - 2 CGY | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-03-24 | CGY 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 10:35 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 11:04 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:15 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.2 - 3.6