Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-03-28 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 45.1%

PHI: 54.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.73

PHI: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	2	0.79
1	PHI	6	0	0.24
2	MTL	12	1	0.65
2	PHI	10	0	0.59
3	MTL	9	1	0.79
3	PHI	23	0	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4