Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-03-28 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 64.9%
WSH: 35.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.42
WSH: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | TOR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | 0.955 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | TOR |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-11-13 | WSH 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:09 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 00:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 05:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:06 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:11 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.4 - 2.6