Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-03-30 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BUF: 49.3%

TOR: 50.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.09

TOR: 3.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.82
1	TOR	9	0	0.42
2	BUF	11	0	0.72
2	TOR	10	0	1.06
3	BUF	22	0	1.37
3	TOR	10	1	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.8