New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-03-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TBL: 56.3%

NYI: 43.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.54

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	29	1	1.64
1	NYI	9	0	0.31
2	TBL	10	0	0.39
2	NYI	24	1	1.64
3	TBL	16	1	1.21
3	NYI	11	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0