Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2024-04-01 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 58.4%
PIT: 41.6%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.39
PIT: 3.30
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 24-16-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 22-15-9 | 0.889 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | NYR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.905 | 0.876 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.951 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | NYR 3 - 2 PIT | NYR | NYR |
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6 - 5 NYR | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1 - 6 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-10-07 | NYR 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3 - 5 NYR | NYR | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:18 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 10:39 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 09:51 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:42 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 16:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:15 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.4 - 3.3
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