Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2024-04-01 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 60.9%
PIT: 39.1%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.48
PIT: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | NYR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.958 | 0.894 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • NYR at home vs PIT: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6 - 5 NYR | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1 - 6 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-10-07 | NYR 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3 - 5 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-02-07 | NYR 2 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:18 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 10:39 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 09:51 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:42 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 16:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:15 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.5 - 3.3