Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-04-01 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.9%
DET: 35.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.52
DET: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 35-13-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.32 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 27-19-3 | 0.904 SV% | 2.63 GAA
| Stat | TBL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.892 | 0.866 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.935 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs DET: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | TBL 4 - 1 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
| 2025-02-08 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 00:37 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 08:36 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:40 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 05:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:20 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 18:57 | DET | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.