Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.3%

FLA: 53.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.83

FLA: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	2	1.19
1	FLA	11	1	0.85
2	TOR	15	1	1.13
2	FLA	13	0	0.82
3	TOR	8	1	0.99
3	FLA	26	1	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1