Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-04-02 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 63.9%
WSH: 36.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.72
WSH: 2.77
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-9-4 | 0.909 SV% | 2.69 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 27-20-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | BUF | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.867 | 0.881 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | BUF 1 - 2 WSH | WSH | BUF |
| 2025-11-01 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5 - 8 BUF | BUF | WSH |
| 2025-01-06 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-14 | WSH 4 - 2 BUF | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:46 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 15:42 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 16:50 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 10:54 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:14 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 03:03 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 04:48 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 05:33 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8
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