Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 60.1%

TBL: 39.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.28

TBL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-14-6 | 0.904 SV% | 3.22 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 36-13-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TOR

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	10:03	TBL	Goal
1	19:00	TOR	Goal
2	02:54	TBL	Goal
2	08:47	TBL	Goal
3	14:19	TBL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8