Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-04-04 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 59.9%

TBL: 40.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.24

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 26-8-4 | 0.903 SV% | 2.73 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 36-13-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs TBL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	TBL 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	TBL
2025-12-28	TBL 5 - 4 MTL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-09	MTL 1 - 6 TBL	TBL	MTL
2025-02-09	MTL 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	MTL
2025-01-21	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	MTL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	02:37	MTL	Goal
1	09:45	MTL	Goal
1	16:26	TBL	Goal
2	04:42	MTL	Goal
2	07:58	TBL	Goal
2	09:12	TBL	Goal
2	13:18	TBL	Goal
2	17:45	TBL	Goal
3	08:40	TBL	Goal
3	11:51	TBL	Goal
3	19:06	TBL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2